India's import of cheap Russian oil scaled another record in May and is now more than the combined oil bought from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE and the US, industry data showed. India took 1.96 million barrels a day from Russia in May, 15 per cent more than the previous high in April, according to data from energy cargo tracker Vortexa. Russia now makes up for nearly 42 per cent of all crude oil India imported in May.
With Donald Trump all set to become US president, Indian exporters may face high customs duties for goods like automobiles, textiles and pharmaceuticals if the new US administration decides to pursue the 'America First' agenda, opined trade experts. Experts also said that Trump could also tighten H-1B visa rules, impacting costs and growth for Indian IT firms. Over 80 per cent of India's IT export earnings come from the US, making it vulnerable to changes in visa policies.
After a strong run in the midcap and smallcap indices, which surged 46 per cent and 43 per cent, respectively, on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) during Samvat 2080, analysts suggest that the rally in these segments may pause to catch its breath in Samvat 2081.
The impact of Trump's announcement of increasing import tariffs will have negligible benefit for India not because of companies trying to shift from China to other countries or their supply chains being affected due to their Chinese operations but because of our faulty policies, explains Mudit Jain.
The country's exports rose by about 6 per cent to a "record" $447 billion during 2022-23 on account of healthy growth in the outbound shipments of sectors such as petroleum, pharma and chemicals and marine, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said on Thursday. The country's imports also grew by 16.5 per cent to $714 billion in 2022-23 as against $613 billion in 2021-22. He said that the exports of goods and services together scaled "new heights" and has increased by 14 per cent to $770 billion in 2022-23 as against 676 billion in 2021-22.
Exports declined for the fourth-consecutive month by 10.3 per cent year-on-year to $34.98 billion in May, while the trade deficit widened to a five-month high of $22.12 billion. According to the data released by the commerce ministry on Thursday, key export sectors recording negative growth include petroleum products, gems and jewellery, engineering goods, ready-made garments of all textiles and chemicals. Imports also declined 6.6 per cent, six-month in a row, to $57.1 billion against $61.13 billion in the same month last year, the data showed.
Subdued demand from developed countries and blocs like the US and EU is impacting exports of key sectors including engineering, gems and jewellery and may have implications on India's exports in case the global situation does not improve in coming months. Global inflation, Russia-Ukraine war, simmering China-Taiwan crisis and supply disruptions are hurting economic growth worldwide, leading to poor demand, experts say. The world merchandise trade volume is expected to grow 3 per cent in 2022 against the earlier forecast of 4.7 per cent, mainly due to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, according to the World Trade Organization forecast, released in April.
The underground industry is estimated to be worth hundreds of millions of dollars a year.
After the first quarter was washed out, exporters are now keeping their fingers crossed over a turnaround in outbound shipments to at least North America from September onwards. This comes even as other key destinations such as Europe may take longer to revive in FY24. Slowdown in key economies, as well as geopolitical tensions resulted in sluggish demand for Indian goods.
After staging a strong recovery from COVID-induced slowdown in 2021, India's exports are likely to extend the growth story to the New Year also on increased demand in the global markets, boost in domestic manufacturing due to production-linked incentive schemes and implementation of some interim trade pacts. Expectations of positive growth in the country's exports are also backed up by the outlook of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) which predicts a 4.7 per cent expansion in the global merchandise trade volume in 2022. Exporters believe that the outbound shipments would cross $400 billion mark in this fiscal going by the current momentum and may reach $475 billion in 2022-23.
A healthy growth in India's services segments has helped the country's total exports and imports of goods and services to cross the $800 billion mark during the first half of 2023, despite a slowdown in global demand, think tank GTRI said in a report on Monday. According to the analysis of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), exports of goods and services rose by 1.5 per cent to $385.4 billion during January-June this year, as against $379.5 billion in January-June 2022. Imports, however, dipped by 5.9 per cent to $415.5 billion during the six months of this year, as against $441.7 billion in January-June 2022.
The most striking features of this Budget was its focus on simplification and improving the ease of doing business in India, asserts Kaku Nakhate.
If growth reverts to the pre-Covid level, a lot of people may have to temper their rosy optimism, points out Debashis Basu.
The assurance came after a meeting of the Saudi Arabia's Supreme Council for Petroleum and Mineral Affairs, which was chaired by King Abdullah. The meeting, which reviewed world oil market developments, referred to the resolution taken by the last OPEC summit in Riyadh in which leaders said they would manage petroleum resources to ensure sustained development. The summit expressed its satisfaction over the progress of work at new investment projects.
The importance of China as India's top trading partner cannot be understated.
Clearing the way for oil refiners to pay Iran in Indian rupee, the Union Budget has exempted the payments made for crude oil purchased from the Persian Gulf nation, from any local tax.
India was looking at tapping new markets for import of edible oils, following the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Tuesday. According to her, the country was facing various hurdles on import of edible oils due to the conflict. "Everyone knows there is a war going on between Russia and Ukraine. There are various hurdles in terms of importing oils.
Buyers find ways to cope with shipping restrictions.
Exports to India's key markets - the US, the United Arab Emirates, China, Singapore, Bangladesh and Germany - witnessed a sharp decline, resulting in a 12.69 per cent contraction in outbound shipments during the first month of the current financial year, commerce department data showed. India's biggest export market - the US - with 17 per cent share witnessed 17.16 per cent contraction at $5.9 billion in April. This was followed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that saw 22.09 per cent decline at $2.23 billion exports.
Oil producers cartel OPEC's share in India's oil imports fell to an all-time low of 46 per cent in April as purchases of cheaper Russian oil peaked, industry data showed. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) nations, mainly in the Middle East and Africa, had a 72 per cent share of all crude oil India imported in April 2022. This share slid to 46 per cent in April 2023, according to energy cargo tracker Vortexa.
India's imports of crude oil from Russia touched a new high of 1.64 million barrels per day in March and is now double of the purchases from Iraq - the nation's traditional top oil supplier. But the purchases appear to have plateaued as growth has slowed. Russia continued to be the single largest supplier of crude oil, which is converted into petrol and diesel at refineries, for a sixth straight month by supplying more than one-third of all oil India imported, according to energy cargo tracker Vortexa.
India's trade deficit with Russia continued to widen for the second consecutive year to $57 billion in the financial year 2023-24 (FY24), with Moscow becoming New Delhi's largest source of crude oil imports. All eyes will now be on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Russia during July 8-9, where he is set to meet President Vladimir Putin. This will be Modi's first visit to the Kremlin since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began over two years ago.
With hilsa prices soaring, when you do cook it you need the finest recipe.
India's unabated tryst with Russian crude oil is slowly coming to an end. The time has come for Indian refiners to navigate, creatively, the choppy waters of the post-honeymoon period, and for Indian policymakers to take cognisance of the broader impact on India from the spillover of the Russian crisis - after Washington's warning to transgressors last week. Shipments from Russia to India have averaged over 1.8 million barrels a day since February, according to data from Paris-based market analytics firm Kpler. But much of the crude shipped to India was non-sanctioned because it traded below a price cap set by the US led G-7 nations in December.
Higher crude oil prices also translate into better corporate earnings for India's top companies
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has decided to cut its daily oil production by about 2 million barrels. OPEC's daily output target is 27.3 million barrels.
In a statement, the state government alleged 'malicious attempts' to discourage the use of products lacking a halal certificate not only seek 'unfair financial benefits' but also form part of a 'pre-planned strategy to sow class hatred, create divisions in society, and weaken the country' by "anti-national elements".
Ukraine is currently in the middle of a strategic offensive into Russia's Kursk region.
India will soon meet Iraq and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to seek a definitive rate of discount on crude oil similar to what Russia has provided so far, sources said. Multiple officials and industry executives said Iraq, which is India's biggest oil supplier, wants to discuss the level of discounts expected by Indian refiners. India's focus on snapping up ever-increasing volumes of Russian crude oil has led to a corresponding decline in imports from the Middle East. Flows from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have suffered as a result.
Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, is reported to be investing $4-5 billion in the force
By driving a hard bargain with Russia in procuring crude oil at the lowest price possible, India is furthering the policy of G7 and Washington is "comfortable" with New Delhi over its approach in addressing issues relating to energy security, a top Biden administration official said.
The real intention of the 'Tariff Man' (as Trump calls himself) may not even be to put the 'Tariff King' (as he describes India) on the mat with a knockout punch but to arm-twist the Indian leadership to agree to some multi-billion dollar mega arms deal, argues Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The US has extended waivers that exempt nine countries, including India and China, from fully complying with American sanctions targeting Iran's oil exports, citing their significant reduction in oil import from Tehran.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has agreed to look into India's concerns over compliance to rules related to the import of silver products, platinum alloy and dry dates, the commerce department said on Tuesday. During a joint committee meeting under the India-UAE trade deal, officials from New Delhi raised concerns over the recent surge in imports of these products. These were being shipped to India, taking advantage of the lower tariffs under the pact.
Even as Russia and West Asia have been slugging it out for market share in India to sell their crude oil, the US is quietly making its moves on the sidelines. The US has doubled its share of the Indian crude market in the past few months, according to industry sources and ship-tracking data. Some of the increase in America's market share may have come at the expense of Russia, India's biggest crude oil supplier, said industry sources.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi met two Kuwaiti nationals who translated and published India's two iconic epics, Mahabharata and Ramayana in Arabic during his two-day visit to Kuwait. Modi, who praised their work, said it highlights the popularity of Indian culture globally. His visit to Kuwait is the first by an Indian prime minister in 43 years.
Contracting for the third month in a row, India's exports declined by 8.8 per cent to $33.88 billion in February due to slowdown in global demand, even as the trade deficit touched about a year low of $17.43 billion during the month, according to official data released on Wednesday. Imports also declined by 8.21 per cent to $51.31 billion as against $55.9 billion recorded in the corresponding month last year. Cumulatively, however during April-February this fiscal, the country's overall merchandise exports rose by 7.5 per cent to $405.94 billion.
ICICI Bank, Tata Motors, Tata Steel, NTPC, JSW Steel, State Bank of India and Adani Ports were the other big gainers. Asian Paints, Nestle, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Hindustan Unilever, Infosys and ITC were the other big laggards.
Export growth picked up mainly owing to rising global crude prices, which pushed up processed petroleum exports by nearly 40 per cent, apart from a broad-based improvement in exports of major foreign exchange earners such as engineering goods and gems and jewellery.
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